Who’s next?
The death (and probable resurrection) of the U.S. auto industry should be a lesson for strategic thinkers. The market leader is not titled like royalty. The leader position, however achieved, must be defended and continually re-earned over time. And, more fundamentally, the market itself morphs over time and therefore what it takes to succeed in the market changes.
This insight leads one to consider what other industries and categories of organizations are susceptible to undermining and decline like the U.S. auto industry. Of course, every type and category is susceptible to decline because change is inevitable, disintermediation - disruption of intermediary markets - is persistent, competition is always arising and technology progress continues. But here we are speaking of classes of organizations who seem most likely at this point in time to be set up for a fall, or, to say it another way, who have succeeded based on a paradigm that has changed over time.
Some organizations seem apparent, such as department stores (undermined by Internet shopping, big box competition on the low end and boutiques on the high end) and newspaper publishers (besieged first by electronic media and then by the Internet).
Others seem poised for bigger problems, such as network television (with cable, satellite television, You Tube and Hulu among the sharks in the water) and real estate agents (susceptible to information services that directly connect buyer and seller).
Consider yet other organizations who still seem strong but are based on a model that is little changed over time. For example, if you are in whole life insurance, are you secure that your business and position will remain strong? If you organize trade shows, will demand and attendance trends resume their historic levels post recession?
If you are on top, don't expect that what got you there will keep you there. If you do, you may go the way of GM or Chrysler. Better to expect your competitors and markets to change and to work on continually reinventing the organization.
