Rise of the poker pros: 10 lessons for great success

Is life a poker game? Or, perhaps better stated, to what extent does playing poker teach us about living the best life?

If you have read recent books by Nate Silver (The Art of Risking Everything), Maria Konnikova (The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win), and Annie Duke (Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away), all one-time professional poker players, you likely will be convinced that poker is a useful simulation of real life, albeit under controlled conditions (that is, a set of rules).

The cool thing about Silver, Konnikova , and Duke is that they are much more than poker pros.

• Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of FiveThirtyEight, a website that focuses on statistical analysis in politics, sports, and other topics. His career began in sports analytics, particularly in baseball, using advanced statistical models to analyze players and games. Silver gained prominence through his accurate predictions in political forecasting, especially during the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, where he accurately forecasted results in 49 out of 50 states. During his poker career, he rose to the top 300 in the Global Poker Index rankings, won $856,000 in high-profile tournaments, and had added winnings in private games. (Photo at left, by Nikita Sokolsky, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.)

• Maria Konnikova is a psychologist, journalist, and author known for her books that blend psychology with storytelling to explore human behavior. With a Ph.D. in psychology from Columbia University, Konnikova brings a research-driven approach to her writing, exploring themes of decision-making, perception, and the human biases. The Biggest Bluff chronicles her journey from a beginner who didn’t even know how many cards are in a deck to a skilled poker player in less than a year, with the help of a mentor and other successful players, using her training as a psychologist to understand and master the game. She delved into poker to gain a deeper understanding of decision-making under uncertainty and became a successful professional player, winning over $500,000 in tournaments and becoming a PokerStars Team Pro. She uses poker as a lens to discuss broader topics of chance, skill, and decision-making under pressure. (Photo in the middle, by Thomas Hawk, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.)

• Annie Duke, besides being a former professional poker player, is an author, decision strategist, and cognitive psychologist. She earned her undergraduate degree in English and psychology from Columbia University and pursued a Ph.D. in cognitive psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. When health issues got in the way of completing her doctoral program, she took up professional poker. Her poker career spanned nearly two decades, during which she won a World Series of Poker bracelet and the 2004 WSOP Tournament of Champions. Her lifetime live tournament winnings total $4,270,54. Her experience in high-stakes poker honed her expertise in assessing risk, making strategic decisions, and managing uncertainty, skills she later applied to broader decision-making strategies. (Photo at right, by flipchip / LasVegasVegas.com, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons.)

I am definitely not a poker pro but I am a strategist with a strong interest in improving our decision-making and making us more successful. (See my books BIG DECISIONS: 40 disastrous decisions and thousands of research studies tell us how to make a great decision when it really matters and AHEAD: Strategy is the way to a better future, Second Edition.) These three authors emphasize highly useful approaches to strategic decision making, strategy development, and execution, summarized here under 10 headings:

1. Recognize that, as in poker, we must make decisions under uncertainty

All three authors view poker as an excellent simulator for real-life decision-making under uncertainty. The game balances known and unknown factors, similar to real-world situations and, like life, requires continuous learning and adaptation.

2. Focus on process over outcomes

The authors stress the importance of focusing on the decision-making process rather than outcomes. Both Duke and Konnikova highlight that good decisions can still lead to bad outcomes. Duke writes, “Our lives are the sum of all our decisions. Bad outcomes do not necessarily mean bad decisions, and vice versa.” Konnikova stresses the need to focus on the process rather than the outcome, as outcomes are often influenced by chance. She writes, “Poker, like life, is about the long game. It’s about making the right decisions even if you end up losing the hand. Because over time, good decisions lead to good results.”

Konnikova urges avoiding "bad beat" stories where players dwell on unlucky outcomes instead of focusing on their decision processes, and focusing on decision quality. "Telling these stories is toxic because you're focusing on the wrong thing; you're thinking about the outcome, rather than the process."

3. Calculate expected value (EV)

Silver emphasizes the importance of calculating expected value (EV) and making decisions based on positive expected value (+EV), determined by assessing probabilities and potential outcomes. He likens poker to life in that it involves evaluating risk with incomplete information, requiring us to recalibrate as we gain new insights. "Poker calls for properly calibrating risk in the face of very imperfect information—and recalibrating it as you gain more information about your companions."

4. Pay Attention!

Konnikova argues that winning requires intense focus on both external cues (opponents' behavior) and internal states (our emotions and biases). Attentiveness to details often overlooked by others can provide a decisive advantage. She explains that she learned that “focus is more than a tool; it’s an actual weapon.” She says we need to recognize the balance between known and unknown factors and highlights poker's probabilistic nature, reminding us that we must work with partial knowledge and adapt. She observes that paying attention “sounds simple, but it's one of the most difficult things I've ever had to do. It means being present, being mindful."

Silver echoes Konnikova, stating that success in poker, as in life, requires sharp awareness of others' behaviors, calculated risk, and data-driven decisions, where careful observation helps tip the odds in our favor.

5. View failure as a learning opportunity

"Failure can be one of life’s great teachers," writes Konnikova. She views failure as a valuable learning opportunity, encouraging a growth mindset and a focus on improvement. Konnikova and her poker mentor, Erik Seidel, frame early losses as valuable lessons. Failures are part of learning, especially when used to refine our skills and strategic approach.

Silver echoes this sentiment by showing how elite poker players view small wins and losses as part of a larger, probabilistic journey, rather than ultimate successes or failures.

6. Always ask yourself “why”

Paired with paying attention, Konnikova encourages critical thinking and self-awareness, emphasizing the importance of understanding the motivations behind actions, yours and your opponents. Her and her mentor’s mantra is, "Less certainty, more inquiry."

7. Treat quitting as a strategic tool

Duke challenges the negative connotations associated with quitting, arguing that it can be a strategic tool for maximizing outcomes. She sees it as a form of adaptability: Letting go of one path allows for recalibration and better decisions, showing that sometimes strategic retreat is the best move for long-term progress. She writes that success comes from focusing on decisions aligned with long-term goals, rather than clinging to suboptimal situations. She redefines quitting as a calculated decision rather than a failure, suggesting that quitting when necessary accelerates progress toward larger goals. "'Quit' shouldn't be a dirty word," says Duke. "Contrary to popular belief, quitting will get you to where you want to go faster."

8. Quit on Time

Duke recognizes how difficult it is to know when to quit, but she emphasizes the importance of setting clear up-front criteria for when to quit and being willing to walk away when necessary. She argues that adjusting our path as we learn more is vital and even quitting can be an effective response to new, unforeseen information. She observes, "Quitting on time will usually feel like quitting too early."

9. Embrace uncertainty

The poker pros ask us to acknowledge and embrace the inherent uncertainty in both poker and life. Konnikova says, “Poker is a game of incomplete information, but so is life. Learning to navigate that ambiguity is the heart of making better decisions.” Duke adds, “In poker and life, we’re taught that winning feels good and losing feels bad. But sometimes, you can make the right choice and still lose, or the wrong choice and still win.”

10. Be humble, flexible, and adaptable

The authors call us to pursue flexibility, adaptability, and a willingness to embrace risk. They encourage us to take smart risks, citing Prospect Theory, developed by Nobel-prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman and his partner Amos Tversky, which shows that we are generally risk averse and tend take not enough risk when we are winning and too much risk when we are losing. They ask us to be willing to question assumptions, adapt to changing circumstances, and engage in continuous learning and improvement.

Konnikova advocates for intellectual humility and a willingness to question assumptions, adapt to changing circumstances, and learn from mistakes. She writes, "Truly great minds are willing to admit that the world keeps changing, and that they often have to change along with it." She embraces learning to lose, learning from every game, and seeing setbacks as opportunities for growth. Her caution: “If you’re 100 percent certain about something, you’re almost certainly wrong… True mastery comes from holding yourself open to being wrong.”