Strategic Thinking & Strategic Action

Fostering strategic thinking and strategic action by organizational leaders since 2007.

Rise of the poker pros: 10 lessons for great success
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Rise of the poker pros: 10 lessons for great success

Is life a poker game? Or, perhaps better stated, to what extent does playing poker teach us about living the best life?

If you have read recent books by Nate Silver (The Art of Risking Everything), Maria Konnikova (The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win), and Annie Duke (Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away), all one-time professional poker players, you likely will be convinced that poker is a useful simulation of real life, albeit under controlled conditions (that is, a set of rules). The cool thing about Silver, Konnikova , and Duke is that they are much more that poker pros.

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AI revisited: Will it ever make perfect decisions?
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

AI revisited: Will it ever make perfect decisions?

In our book, BIG DECISIONS, published in 2022, we took on the topic of whether artificial intelligence would soon (or ever) become the answer when we are looking for the right decision.

The idea is that we can maximize our gain from decisions is by using machines to help us make them or even have machines make them for us. But the question then and even more so now with the sudden emergence of OpenAI’s Chat GPT, Meta’s Llama 2, Anthropic’s Claude 2, Google’s Bard, and other groundbreaking AI large language models (LLMs), is can an algorithm be perfected to always yield "the right decision"?

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“The instant of decision is madness”
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

“The instant of decision is madness”

We are faced with “undecidability” and yet have to make a leap of faith and decide. Furthermore, we are overconfident in what we think we know and we can never know enough, We are fooling ourselves if we believe there are clear decision options and justifications ahead of the actual decision. We must act and then we will see what comes next and our next decision and action.

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Despite our growing ignorance, we must decide
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Despite our growing ignorance, we must decide

We are unable to fully access the information we need to make big decisions My mother encouraged me to read and learn. But she cautioned me, “The more you learn the less you will know.” That was her way of saying that learning opens whole domains about which we were previously ignorant and shows us how much more there is to learn. That thought leads to the necessary understanding that our decision making is dependent on knowledge we do not have and can never completely know. Because we are faced tidal wave of data and knowledge that we never can know and access, we as decision makers must make our big decisions without possessing all the existing knowledge that could make our decisions better. “Unknowability” is an unavoidable characteristic of real-world decision-making.

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Can “Big Data” deliver “the right decision”?
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Can “Big Data” deliver “the right decision”?

One idea for maximizing the gain we get from decisions is to use machines to help us make them or even have machines make the big decisions for us. But can an algorithm be perfected to always yield “the right decision”? An algorithm is a process or set of rules used in calculations or problem-solving. “Artificial intelligence” (AI) algorithms which process “Big Data” use logic rules and mathematics to solve problems and produce answers. These algorithms engage in “machine learning” or “deep learning.” Instead of a programmer writing the commands to solve a problem, the program generates its own algorithm based on example or training data and a desired output.. But it is clear that we cannot reliably leave or ever expect to leave our big decisions to “Big Data” and artificial intelligence. We humans will continue to need to make the big decisions, with whatever outside aid we can muster and trust.

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The worst accident: “We’re going!”
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

The worst accident: “We’re going!”

On March 27, 1977, two Boeing 747 passenger jets, KLM Flight 4805 and Pan Am Flight 1736, collided on the runway at Los Rodeos Airport on the Spanish island of Tenerife. Of the 644 people aboard the two 747s, 583 were killed and only 61 survived. This was the worst accident in aviation history. The massive investigation of and subsequent reports on the Tenerife airport disaster offer deep insight into what happened and what went wrong. As a result, aviation authorities and airlines worldwide changed procedures. But they are insufficient to explain why the KLM 747 collided with the Pan Am 747. Explaining the “why” of the disaster leads us to our great concern, bad decisions and what to do to avoid them when making a good decision is imperative for a mission-critical outcome.

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10 surprising mental traps: Why we make bad decisions
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

10 surprising mental traps: Why we make bad decisions

In research for my upcoming book, Big Decisions: Why we make them badly, how we can make them better, I have discovered more than 280 psychological, perception, memory, logic, physical and social effects, errors, biases, shortcuts, fallacies and traps that lead us into making bad decisions.  Here are ten of what I find to be among the most surprising and thorny traps.  They go by varied names and have many disguises.  I have grouped these traps in three categories, and for each offer a definition and thoughts about why it poses a problem for decision making, and then give some examples of how they can lead us astray.  Read on to find the answers to the "true or false" quiz and to learn much more about ways we unknowingly trip ourselves up.

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Often wrong but never in doubt
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Often wrong but never in doubt

Our vocabulary is replete with phrases that express the dual way that we recognize, process and deal with the input that we receive in life.   In the introduction to his seminal book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Nobel Prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman writes, "As we navigate our lives, we normally allow ourselves to be guided by impressions and feelings, and the confidence we have in our intuitive beliefs and preferences is usually justified.  But not always. We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are."  Kahneman's observation is backed by the decades of research that he and his late partner, Amos Tversky, conducted on judgment and decision-making.

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