Lead from strategy, don’t waste time
Worried about DOGE? VUCA, meet OODA!
Anybody love acronyms? DOGE, for example? (Translation for those living a hermetic cave life, that’s the Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musks’s crusade to cut governmental spending.) Or TL;DR:, which means Too Long; Didn't Read., a sign of our frenetic times.? Or FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out, where we are anxious about not having the experiences others are having? Or how about IMHO: In My Humble Opinion, used to express a personal viewpoint? (But why not just say I think or I believe?)
As a writer and former journalist, I don’t find acronymns particularly lovable. I prefer solid nouns, verbs, and adjectives for describing things and feelings. But, then again, some acronyms are a very handy way of wrapping up a complex thought or concept in a just a few letters.
One such acronym that does not roll off the tongue but does crystallize our fraught times and ought to lead us to focused action is VUCA, meaning Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. VUCA describes the challenging conditions and environments that organizations, leaders, and individuals face, particularly when those conditions make analysis, response, and planning difficult. In short, today we are most certainly living in a VUCA world.
Lest we kid ourselves, let’s recognize that the world has always been more VUCA than not, despite our being lulled at times, whether it be by the post World War II economic boom, the long run of low interest rates through the early 2020s, the U.S.’s 80-year hegemony as the world’s leading military and economic power, or the availability of low-priced Chinese goods. More often, our business and personal lives are upended, be it by hurricane or COVID Pandemic or personal tragedy or windfall, or any of a thousand other status-quo warping events.
So what do we know about succeeding in a VUCA world? From theory, evidence, and practice, we can distill four key principles that will foster success:
Observe what’s going on and orient on what it means.
Decide and, if needed, act (e.g., attack, escape, evade, avoid, stem your losses, or lean in to new opportunities).
Lead from strategy.
Don’t waste time and resources.
To address how to do number one and number two, let’s turn to another acronym, the OODA Loop:
Observe and orient: OODA Loop, Part One
In a VUCA world, things happen fast and we need to be on top of what’s happening and be ready to respond quickly.
We need to pay attention, focus, act, and be agile. Otherwise, we may be damaged, thwarted, or otherwise lose as the world changes beneath our feet.
When things are VUCA, that’s the time to consider using the the fastest planning and implementation process I know, designed to produce wins in a dynamic environment: The OODA Loop.
The OODA loop was formulated by Col. John Boyd, ace Korean War U.S. Air Force pilot and later the person charged with training other fighter pilots. It’s a decision-making approach applicable in developing and executing strategies in a fast-changing environment. It has four steps:
1. Observe. You filter available information.
• Realize what is happening.
“If we don’t communicate with the outside world – to gain information for knowledge and understanding – we die out to become a non-discerning and uninteresting part of that world.” – John Boyd
• Recognize new circumstances.
“By observing and taking into account new information about our changing environment, our minds become an open system rather than a closed one, and we are able to gain the knowledge and understanding that’s crucial in forming new mental models.” – Brett and Kate McKay
• Restart the clock.
“You have the responsibility to collect as much data as you can – about your opponent, the environment, the motivations and yourself. The clock is ticking, however. Remember, your opponents are studying you, too!” – Matthew Fritz
2. Orient. You put it in context.
• Realign with reality.
“So how does one orient himself in a rapidly changing environment? You constantly have to break apart your old paradigms and put the resulting pieces back together to create a new perspective that better matches your current reality.” – Brett and Katy McKay
• Request outside help.
“There is often incomplete information [or] too much information to make sense of. Professional judgment, informed by outside expertise if necessary, is key to spotting patterns and making sense out of chaos.” – Clearwater Insights
• Recognize the evolving situation.
“Orientation isn’t just a state you’re in; it’s a process. You’re always orienting.” – John Boyd
• Rethink your business model. Orient your business model to take advantage of change. Do it quickly!
Decide and act: OODA Loop, Part Two
3. Decide. You quickly make the best decision.
• Option: Renew your plan. If observation and orientation show your business still works, go for it.
• Option: Revise your plan. If observation and orientation show your business can work with changes, make them now!
• Option: Redo your plan. If observation and orientation show your business no longer works, go down a new road!
• Resolve to act. A decision carries no weight until you resolve to translate it into action.
4. Act, knowing the action can change as you receive more information.
• Reset. Do a reset to ready yourself for action.
• Respond.
“The ‘transient’ is the change between maneuvers. The ideal fast transient is an abrupt, unexpected, disorienting change that causes the other side to say ‘What the f***!’” –T aylor Pearson
• Repeat the loop.
“Action is how we find out if our mental models are correct. If they are, we win the battle; if they aren’t, then we start the OODA Loop again using our newly observed data.” – Brett and Kate McKay
The OODA loop:
• Enables real-time decision-making.
• Prizes situational awareness.
• Rewards informed decision-making in evolving scenarios.
• Should be repeated until the situation resolves.
• Enables finding a solution to a threat before competitiveness is lost.
• Is about updating and revising strategies to keep pace with an evolving environment.
“We gotta get an image or picture in our head, which we call orientation. Then we have to make a decision as to what we’re going to do, and then implement the decision. Then we look at the action, plus our observation, and we drag in new data, new orientation, new decision, new action, ad infinitum.” – John Boyd
Lead from strategy
“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” – Sun Tsu
A problem with functioning in a highly dynamic, variable world is that the quick, unforseen change elicits knee-jerk reactions and short term responses. Yes, one needs to get away from the lion but the means of exit and the direction matter as well. If you escape the lion only to run over a cliff, then it would be difficult to describe your decision to run as smart.
That’s where strategic thinking and strategic action come in:
Strategic thinking is something one does. You may know it when you see it, but it can be unseen or unrecognized. It's a way of interpreting the world that looks for longer-term implications, openings, new roads, emerging issues and opportunities, how to get from here to there.
Acting strategically is also something that individuals and organizations do. It is overt, seen, and intentional. It can flow from individual strategic thinking as well as the strategic plan, which should be the result of collective strategic thinking. It's taking that "aha!" moment and acting on it in the smartest way possible: "Here's a way that will bring us greater success in the future – let's do what's needed now to be there then." Strategic action is the object of managing strategically, the substance that will make the difference between success and lack of it.
When we view the VUCA world from the vantage point of strategy rather than knee-jerk reaction, we can see different roads to the future and the risks that these might entail. (Remember, in any case, that sitting rather than acting in a VUCA world may present the greatest risk. Better you quickly find a new plan and move rather than be stepped on and squashed!) You will be wise to filter your “Now what? Well, we could do this…” thinking with a risk assessment process. What are the odds this will get us to a better place? What are the odds that it will work out versus go wrong? How might we mitigate that risk?
Know that what I am asking you to do in finding strategies that will work in VUCA times is not necessarily what organizations do even in normal times. You have to be intentional about assessing and addressing risk. We like to think that the leaders, strategists, and decision makers who guide and control business, government and the non-profit sector are on top of their organizations and the future. Yet, the results of our 2016 Strategic Leader Survey, which focused on decision making, showed a general inattention to strategic risk by organizational leaders.
From 2016 Strategic Business Leader Survey. Copyright © 2016, 2025 by Forrest Consulting.
As the chart of survey results shows:
• 60% of organizations don't use a process to identify emerging risks to the organization.
• Nearly two-thirds don't broadly define and track competition, nor do they use worst-case forecasts in their strategic decision making.
• Three-quarters delay in factoring a potential future risk into decision making.
• 80% don't seek to cut exposure to extreme negative "Black Swan" events (e.g. a tsunami that destroys key infrastructure or a 9-11-type event that fundamentally disrupts financial markets) and even more don't seek to increase exposure to extreme positive "Black Swan" events (e.g. a key competitor leaving the business or the unexpected fall of a dictator opening a new market).
• More than 70% don't bother to model the risk profile for each potential strategic option that they might pursue.
• Almost two-thirds don't develop scenarios for a limited number of potential strategy-disrupting events to help them respond should these events arise.
• Very few organizations run simulations or conduct "war games" to help leaders see what strategy outcomes might be.
• 80% don't conduct "pre mortems" - acting as if strategy decisions went wrong to see the possible causes of failure and how they might be remedied or avoided.
Don’t waste time and resources
When the world is changing quickly, time, money and other resources become an even more valuable commodities. (I contend in any case that time is our most valuable commodity because we can’t create any more time for ourselves than 24X7.)
Time- and resource-wasting in the context of a VUCA environment has two faces:
Ignoring or discounting the situation, thus not applying any meaningful time or resources or applying too little time or resources to address what’s needed to survive, grow and thrive. For example:
Research In Motion (RIM), the maker of BlackBerry phones, was a dominant force in the rapidly changing early smartphone market, particularly with business users. When the iPhone with its focus on user experience and a huge app ecosystem emerged and quickly gained popularity, RIM’s leadership was confident that their phone’s physical keyboard and security features would hold sway. Rather than focusing time and effort addressing how to compete with Apple, the company stood pat for far too long.
Lehman Brothers, the one-time leading Wall Street firm, under the leadership of CEO Richard Fuld, maintained an overly optimistic outlook despite clear warning signs of the 2008 financial crisis. Fuld continued to leverage the firm heavily in subprime mortgages, ineffectively hedging growing risk that company executives were warning him about, and reportedly telling investors things were fine just months before the company's collapse. His unwillingness to acknowledge reality led to Lehman's bankruptcy - the largest in U.S. history at that time.
Video firm Blockbuster continued to pursue its traditional rental business model even as Netflix was scaling quickly. CEO John Antioco maintained an optimistic, even pollyanish view that physical video rentals would continue to dominate despite emerging digital trends. Even as Netflix grew and Blockbuster's business model became outdated, leadership remained committed to the company’s traditional approach. This commitment to the status quo eventually led to Blockbuster's bankruptcy in 2010.
Recognizing the situation, but misapplying the time and resources that can be made available to address what’s needed to grow and thrive. For example:
Retailer Sears was a "a dollar short and a day late" - or maybe many dollars short and many days late - in adapting to the fast rise of e-commerce. The company did establish an online presence, but its efforts seemed like an afterthought, not fully integrated with its brick-and-mortar strategy. The company didn't invest heavily enough and quickly enough to build a seamless online shopping experience, modernize their supply chain for online fulfillment, and effectively compete with online retailers, most notably Amazon. Sears’ traditional store model was rapidly losing relevance and the company’s response was slow, underfunded, and even misdirected. No wonder Sears failed.
Short-form video company Quibi launched with big funding and was backed by big names, betting that the market for premium, short-form video content designed for on-the-go viewing would continue to grow. However, Quibi’s launch coincided with the global pandemic that kept people largely at home, negating the "on-the-go" premise. While recognizing the situation, instead of quickly adapting the content strategy for a home-based audience or exploring different distribution models like streaming, the company spent heavily on high-end productions and marketing for a concept that had lost its immediate relevance. This misapplication of resources in a drastically changed world led to Quibi’s swift shutdown.
Chinese real estate giant Evergrande saw its way out of the deterioriation of China’s property market through making big investments in unrelated businesses such as electric vehicles and bottled water. Chairman Xu Jiayin recognized the big change in market conditions, but under his leadership the company continued building massive projects and making ambitious promises while accumulating over $300 billion in debt and facing mounting financial problems. The company defaulted in late 2021 and was ordered to liquidate in January 2024.
Guidance: See clearly, don’t dither, be strategic, focus your resources
I obviously can’t say whether today’s volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity are a threat or opportunity for you. Nonetheless, until the evidence proves otherwise, I suggest that you treat these times as non-normal, a threat to the status quo (maybe yours!).
Consider today’s economic, political, and social conditions worthy of OODA Loop thinking and acting. Keep your vision and strategies that will get you there top of mind while limiting risk. Don’t whistle past the graveyard - yes, there are potentially scary things out there that you probably ought not ignore. And, please, don’t double down on the status quo or chase big bets on unproven avenues. Sears and Evergrande aren’t models you should emulate.
