Strategic Thinking & Strategic Action

Fostering strategic thinking and strategic action by organizational leaders since 2007.

Do you measure up?
Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh

Do you measure up?

We have a problem. We are not wired well for the sustained, organized, separate effort needed to change and grow, to implement our plans, be they strategic or annual.

What I have uncovered on my now six-year deep dive into why we make big decisions poorly and what to do about that huge issue starkly highlights what derails our best intentions in implementing our plans.

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Changing our thinking to feel better. Yes, we do that!
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Changing our thinking to feel better. Yes, we do that!

In the 1980s, I had encounters with two bank CEOs whom power and money biased to make very bad decisions that hurt themselves, their employees, customers and the U.S. economy. Both later tangled with the law for their misdeeds.

With that background, you will understand why I am astonished about a much more recent and much larger case of banking misconduct, for which I believe no one has yet to serve time in custody. This case amplifies the decision-making errors I saw in the lead-up to the savings and loan crisis.

In February 2020, Wells Fargo, the nation’s fourth largest commercial bank, stunningly admitted that it had assessed customers millions of dollars in fees as employees falsified records, forged signatures and misused customers’ personal information to open fake accounts to meet unrealistic sales goals. The bank said its leaders knew of the misbehavior, including “violations of federal criminal law,” as early as 2002 but did not stop it until 2016.

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Forget business as usual
Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh

Forget business as usual

With the realization that the storm we thought we are weathering is turning out to be a lasting, hard change in the business climate, a shorter “fix” is likely only to be the start of what the typical business will need to do to be really successful going forward.

I am suggesting that we go beyond stop-gap and short-term measures. I am suggesting that each of us take our business back to fundamentals, rethink it in light of where we are and likely are headed. I am suggesting that we address the new challenges and opportunities brought on by change and then build that reimagined business for greater success.

Here’s a six-step process for resetting your business in a time of great change.

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The Black Swan and us
Risk Lee Crumbaugh Risk Lee Crumbaugh

The Black Swan and us

We are victims of change. Huge change. Change that some tried to predict but that most of the rest of us did not see coming. Change that fits at least some of the characteristics of a Black Swan.

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Avoid “the big fail”! Join a group.
Coaching Lee Crumbaugh Coaching Lee Crumbaugh

Avoid “the big fail”! Join a group.

I offer group business coaching. The results that my group coaching clients are getting amaze me. Bang for the buck and for the time required, group coaching is a winner for my clients, as well as for me. Here's the case for joining a monthly coaching and accountability group such as what I am now offering. It will help you avoid "the big fail" (it is described in the article), and will support you in achieving your goals. You get brainstorming, education, peer accountability and support in a group setting. This support is especially important in helping you succeed in this radically changed business environment and in sharpening your business and personal skills.

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We are biased by the bell curve
Bell curve bias Lee Crumbaugh Bell curve bias Lee Crumbaugh

We are biased by the bell curve

We are biased by the bell curve in many domains of our decision making. For example: In investing, we discount the possibility of rare and unpredictable large deviations in stock prices. In marketing, we want to believe that “there is a meaningful ‘average consumer’ that can be used to scale products and operations around.” We are asked to rate Uber drivers, Airbnbs and Yelp establishments on a 1-5 bell curve scale, and yet the ratings cluster above 4. Any person or place rated lower, in essence, fails.  The implication of our tendency to assume that things are distributed normally is that we have a huge flaw in how we interpret what we see and how we make decisions. Better to step back and see what things look like without imposing the bell curve from the get-go.

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Remember, history is written by the survivors
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Remember, history is written by the survivors

We are urged to learn from history. But what if the history is biased? Here’s a case showing how slanted history can lead to bad decisions. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, U.S. advisors were mislead by the fallacy of silent evidence, that is, not seeing the full story when looking at history, just seeing the rosier parts of the process reported by the “winners.” U.S. policy was tragically misguided because of survivorship bias, that is, concentrating on and giving undue credit to the people, things or interpretations that "survived" the process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their invisibility.

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Beliefs about a group matter
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Beliefs about a group matter

Here’s a story about what can go wrong when we hold beliefs about a group and attribute these beliefs to the members of the group. The Battle of Little Bighorn, also called Custer's Last Stand, took place in Montana Territory on June 25-26, 1876, between the Lakota, Northern Cheyenne, and Arapaho tribes and the 7th Cavalry Regiment of the U.S. Army. The Battle of the Little Bighorn was a stunning victory for the Native Americans. The 7th Cavalry, casualties numbered 268 dead, including Custer, and 55 wounded. How Custer viewed the Indians opposing him led him astray.

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Not knowing we don’t know
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Not knowing we don’t know

To lack relevant knowledge without realizing it can have disastrous consequences. Consider, for example, the underestimation of the risk of a nuclear accident when constructing the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant power plant in Japan. The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster offers a stark example of what can go wrong when we rely on a small and biased sample of data.

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“The instant of decision is madness”
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

“The instant of decision is madness”

We are faced with “undecidability” and yet have to make a leap of faith and decide. Furthermore, we are overconfident in what we think we know and we can never know enough, We are fooling ourselves if we believe there are clear decision options and justifications ahead of the actual decision. We must act and then we will see what comes next and our next decision and action.

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22 principles I have learned from being an athlete
Success Lee Crumbaugh Success Lee Crumbaugh

22 principles I have learned from being an athlete

This post speaks to what I see as the strategies,habits and actions taken over time that lead to improvement and success. In essence, I believe that what it takes for long-term success in sport applies equally well to success in business and other walks of life. Over 57 years of athletics - running, triathlon, biking, swimming, spin classes, abs workouts, speed skating, golf, tennis and even some sailing - wisdom accrues. As a strategy consultant and business coach, I constantly find myself applying what I have learned from being an athlete to my work improving organizations and coaching decision makers. Here are 22 principles that have stuck with me as a result of decades of training, competing and coaching.

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Despite our growing ignorance, we must decide
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Despite our growing ignorance, we must decide

We are unable to fully access the information we need to make big decisions My mother encouraged me to read and learn. But she cautioned me, “The more you learn the less you will know.” That was her way of saying that learning opens whole domains about which we were previously ignorant and shows us how much more there is to learn. That thought leads to the necessary understanding that our decision making is dependent on knowledge we do not have and can never completely know. Because we are faced tidal wave of data and knowledge that we never can know and access, we as decision makers must make our big decisions without possessing all the existing knowledge that could make our decisions better. “Unknowability” is an unavoidable characteristic of real-world decision-making.

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Can “Big Data” deliver “the right decision”?
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Can “Big Data” deliver “the right decision”?

One idea for maximizing the gain we get from decisions is to use machines to help us make them or even have machines make the big decisions for us. But can an algorithm be perfected to always yield “the right decision”? An algorithm is a process or set of rules used in calculations or problem-solving. “Artificial intelligence” (AI) algorithms which process “Big Data” use logic rules and mathematics to solve problems and produce answers. These algorithms engage in “machine learning” or “deep learning.” Instead of a programmer writing the commands to solve a problem, the program generates its own algorithm based on example or training data and a desired output.. But it is clear that we cannot reliably leave or ever expect to leave our big decisions to “Big Data” and artificial intelligence. We humans will continue to need to make the big decisions, with whatever outside aid we can muster and trust.

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The worst accident: “We’re going!”
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

The worst accident: “We’re going!”

On March 27, 1977, two Boeing 747 passenger jets, KLM Flight 4805 and Pan Am Flight 1736, collided on the runway at Los Rodeos Airport on the Spanish island of Tenerife. Of the 644 people aboard the two 747s, 583 were killed and only 61 survived. This was the worst accident in aviation history. The massive investigation of and subsequent reports on the Tenerife airport disaster offer deep insight into what happened and what went wrong. As a result, aviation authorities and airlines worldwide changed procedures. But they are insufficient to explain why the KLM 747 collided with the Pan Am 747. Explaining the “why” of the disaster leads us to our great concern, bad decisions and what to do to avoid them when making a good decision is imperative for a mission-critical outcome.

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Trump trap: Epistemic arrogance
Lee Crumbaugh Lee Crumbaugh

Trump trap: Epistemic arrogance

Donald Trump displays continuing ignorance in so many domains despite abundant evidence of the truth. A major decision-making trap that he exhibits is epistemic arrogance, in which we think we know more than we really do know. As our learning increases, we grow even more confident in our knowledge and tend to ignore our ignorance and what we still do not know. The prevalence of overconfidence appears to pose a serious obstacle to effective learning, problem solving and decision making.

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