Strategic Thinking & Strategic Action

Fostering strategic thinking and strategic action by organizational leaders since 2007.

Despite our growing ignorance, we must decide
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Despite our growing ignorance, we must decide

We are unable to fully access the information we need to make big decisions My mother encouraged me to read and learn. But she cautioned me, “The more you learn the less you will know.” That was her way of saying that learning opens whole domains about which we were previously ignorant and shows us how much more there is to learn. That thought leads to the necessary understanding that our decision making is dependent on knowledge we do not have and can never completely know. Because we are faced tidal wave of data and knowledge that we never can know and access, we as decision makers must make our big decisions without possessing all the existing knowledge that could make our decisions better. “Unknowability” is an unavoidable characteristic of real-world decision-making.

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Can “Big Data” deliver “the right decision”?
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Can “Big Data” deliver “the right decision”?

One idea for maximizing the gain we get from decisions is to use machines to help us make them or even have machines make the big decisions for us. But can an algorithm be perfected to always yield “the right decision”? An algorithm is a process or set of rules used in calculations or problem-solving. “Artificial intelligence” (AI) algorithms which process “Big Data” use logic rules and mathematics to solve problems and produce answers. These algorithms engage in “machine learning” or “deep learning.” Instead of a programmer writing the commands to solve a problem, the program generates its own algorithm based on example or training data and a desired output.. But it is clear that we cannot reliably leave or ever expect to leave our big decisions to “Big Data” and artificial intelligence. We humans will continue to need to make the big decisions, with whatever outside aid we can muster and trust.

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