Strategic Thinking & Strategic Action

Fostering strategic thinking and strategic action by organizational leaders since 2007.

Case 9: The climbers who perished by succeeding
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 9: The climbers who perished by succeeding

Mountain climbing guide Rob Hall believed that his expedition plan would get Mount Everest climbers in his charge onto and down from the summit. Yet, many climbers found themselves descending in darkness, well past midnight, as a ferocious blizzard enveloped the mountain. Five people died in this highly publicized 1996 disaster and many others barely escaped with their lives. Hall's party encountered the worst of outcomes because options were not recognized and the judgment of others besides Hall went unheard.

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Case 8: No accounting for incompetence
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 8: No accounting for incompetence

PricewaterhouseCoopers' partner and accountant Brian Cullinan believed that he and his associate were well prepared to properly dole out the envelopes with winners' names to presenters at the 2017 Oscars ceremony. Cullinan made the biggest Oscar award mistake ever by handing presenter Warren Beatty the wrong envelope. Beatty's on-stage partner, Faye Dunaway, announced “La La Land” was the winner when “Moonlight” was actually the best picture winner. The accounting firm partner was likely entrapped by many mental errors and biases. Working for a big-name firm and having a big title does not protect one from biases and traps. Indeed, it can lead to overlooking evidence and both rash action and stultifying inaction.

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Case 7: Blind or incompetent? Perhaps both…
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 7: Blind or incompetent? Perhaps both…

Lehman Brothers CEO Richard Fuld believed that the investment bank was adequately capitalized when it increased its leverage from 12-1 to 40-to-1, became a major player in securitizing subprime mortgages, relied on risky credit default swaps for protection and engaged in accounting maneuvers that disguised how much debt the firm had taken on. Also, he believed that the U.S. government would bail out the firm when the policies and actions he had enabled put the firm on the brink of failure in 2008. Contrary to Fuld's belief, Lehman Brothers was woefully undercapitalized as the financial crisis arose. The federal government walked away from an implicit "too big to fail" tag that Fuld and others thought would be applied to the firm. Lehman Brothers failed and Fuld was disgraced. Three big mental traps jump out of Fuld's folly.

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Case 6: Seeing what he wanted to see
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 6: Seeing what he wanted to see

Galileo stubbornly believed that Saturn was three planets in close orbit. This belief, which the Italian astronomer clung to until he died, belied what otherwise was his use of the scientific method: Other astronomers with stronger telescopes reported that what he saw as multiple planets was instead one planet with previously unknown rings around it.. Multiple mental traps and errors may have clouded Galileo's vision.

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Case 5: Getting burned by past successes
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 5: Getting burned by past successes

Samsung's leaders believed that the smartphone giant had a winner when it introduced its flagship Galaxy Note 7 smartphone with a new longer life lithium-ion battery.  After weeks of reports of phones bursting into fire, Samsung issued two separate recalls and ultimately had to permanently withdraw the phone from the market. Here are the mental traps and errors that likely misled Samsung's leaders.

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Case 4: I’m the boss, so I am right!
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 4: I’m the boss, so I am right!

Uber Technologies CEO Travis Kalanick believed that through confrontation he could make the firm supreme and dictate the rules for ridesharing and driverless cars. His approach led to a boycott and great reputational damage for the company and for him personally. Kalanick seems to be a "poster child" illustrating the ill effects of biases and traps.

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Case 3: The experts were wrong
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 3: The experts were wrong

Hillary Clinton's campaign team believed that with Donald Trump as her opponent she would be elected President. Winning the popular vote did not produce the victory that her team predicted: Clinton lost in the Electoral College. Here are some mental traps and fallacies that likely led the Clinton team to err and predict victory.

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Case 2: The battle that didn’t go as expected
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 2: The battle that didn’t go as expected

Confederate General Robert E. Lee believed that his troops could overrun the Federal's front line at the battle of Gettysburg.  He was wrong: Pickett's charge by 15,000 Confederate soldiers against 6,500 entrenched Federals resulted in over 6,000 Confederate casualties and ended Lee’s last invasion of the north.   Here are several traps and errors that may have led Lee to believe the charge would succeed.

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The risk of ignoring risk
Risk Lee Crumbaugh Risk Lee Crumbaugh

The risk of ignoring risk

What is startling is that the engineer who invented the digital camera worked for the giant of photography, Kodak. Kodak owned the patent for what the engineer invented. Yet, Kodak proceeded to bury the technology rather than commercialize it. Had it instead adopted the technology on a timely basis, today it could be the Apple of digital imaging. The New York TImes' Lens blog offers a great summary of the invention of the digital camera and Kodak's failure to embrace it. The attitude at Kodak was that no one needed digital photos. Film and photos printed on paper, using silver halide technology, had ruled for 100 years and Kodak ruled film and paper.photography. How wrong was that conclusion! Evidence was ignored as digital photography caught hold. Biases reined at Kodak.

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Misuse of evidence can zap your strategy
Evidence Lee Crumbaugh Evidence Lee Crumbaugh

Misuse of evidence can zap your strategy

Bad strategic decisions can result from insufficient or misused evidence. We are programmed to immediately "fit" the information we have at hand to our experience – magnified by what is most current and what seems "like" or relevant to the situation - whether it is applicable or sufficient. Here's an example of a seemingly very smart organization that stumbled because of insufficient and misused evidence.

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Failure without facilitation: The French Canal Disaster
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Failure without facilitation: The French Canal Disaster

In 1879, the Congrès International d'Etudes du Canal Interocéanique (International Congress for Study of an Interoceanic Canal) was convened in Paris under the auspices of the Société de Géographie de Paris to consider proposals to build a canal across Central America, from the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific Ocean. Ferdinand de Lesseps, the French ex-diplomat who had spawned and led the company that created the Suez Canal, chaired the conference and dominated the discussions and the decision making. Despite an immense amount of evidence against the success of a sea-level canal across the Isthmus of Panama, de Lesseps' vision prevailed. More than 22,000 lives were lost and thousands of investors were out the equivalent of nearly $6 billion in current dollars when that Panama canal venture finally collapsed in 1889. Why was it that the errant views of one Frenchman won out over the combined wisdom of the engineering community, the financial community and many others who had spent time scouting the terrain and who had identified the huge problems of disease, torrential rain, dense rain forest, raging rivers and mountains that stood in the way of success? Why in this striking case did not the underlying wisdom of the group prevail?

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No consensus for consensus
Consensus Lee Crumbaugh Consensus Lee Crumbaugh

No consensus for consensus

The adage that "two heads are better than one" is on the right track. In fact, research shows that consensus decisions reached by five or more people are most often qualitatively superior to individual, majority and leader decisions. Consensus decision making works - when properly used. However, having consensus decision making in the organization's arsenal does not necessary mean that it is regularly used to make the big decisions affecting the organization's future. In fact, organizations typically make strategic decisions without the leader obtaining consensus: In two-thirds of organizations the leader typically decides.

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#2 error: Not using the group advantage
Group decisions Lee Crumbaugh Group decisions Lee Crumbaugh

#2 error: Not using the group advantage

Leaders and organizations make a mistake when they don't use the group to make strategic decisions. Research shows groups usually make better decisions. Not using group decision making is one of the 18 categories of biases and poor practices that we have identified that can produce bad strategic decisions.

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Risk and regret
Risk Lee Crumbaugh Risk Lee Crumbaugh

Risk and regret

Regret is a powerful emotion. We don't want to feel regret and seek to avoid it. We not only can feel regret after making a choice, regret that we did not choose what might have been a better option, but we are capable of forecasting our future regret and of taking action now to avoid future regret for not acting. Of course, pursuing an option because we anticipate regret if we don't act does not assure that the choice we make is a "good" risk. Properly assessing the risk and potential return of an option and and whether we act on the option are separable activities. So if regret can get us off dead center and lead us to act, it does not remedy how our mental biases, shortcuts and errors hinder clear-eyed risk assessment.  

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Managing choice
Choice Lee Crumbaugh Choice Lee Crumbaugh

Managing choice

Research shows that having a limited set of choices - rather than none or only a poor option - is empowering and positive. A limited set of options enables us to focus on each option and paves the way for a better decision.  But when the options are multitudinous and are not culled and sharpened, we tend to make a poor choice, latching on to something that attracts us, or falling back on something familiar and comfortable.

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Approach or avoid?
Approach-avoidance Lee Crumbaugh Approach-avoidance Lee Crumbaugh

Approach or avoid?

Approach-avoidance is a psychological syndrome that affects us all, and through us, our organizations.  We discount what might be possible and otherwise exceptional because it daunts us and challenges us to act with intent and resolve, going new directions where the way is not easy nor familiar. We are afraid we will fail. We ignore the truth that we only learn when we bump up against change and challenge what we perceive as boundaries and limits.

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Thinking “as if”
Pre-mortem Lee Crumbaugh Pre-mortem Lee Crumbaugh

Thinking “as if”

One way to help assure that your seemingly great strategy is robust and will produce desired results as opposed to sinking your organization is to conduct a session in which you assess its failure. That’s right, consider conducting what Gary Klein calls a “premortem” (as opposed to a postmortem).

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Smart phones on the savannah
Evolution Lee Crumbaugh Evolution Lee Crumbaugh

Smart phones on the savannah

So why is it that we humans can go astray in recognizing that we have meaningful choices in our lives and in our organizations, in developing and executing winning strategies, in making the big decisions well when it really counts? Let’s consider the idea that as individuals we are maladapted for modern society.  One line of thinking and research proposes that we are optimized for hunting antelope, not for meetings, morning commutes, juggling emails, tweets and posts, and strategy execution.

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Leaders who mislead: A tale of two movies
Leadership Lee Crumbaugh Leadership Lee Crumbaugh

Leaders who mislead: A tale of two movies

Consider how every-day leaders with bad or misplaced intentions lead us and the business and civic organizations we care about astray. A first step to improving how we make the big decisions necessary to get better outcomes in our organizations and our lives is to recognize how we are being played, kept in the dark and misrepresented. Here's a list of some ways leaders use mental flaws, traps and fallacies to mislead us. (If you are the leader and see elements of your own behavior in this list, please change now!)

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