Strategic Thinking & Strategic Action

Fostering strategic thinking and strategic action by organizational leaders since 2007.

Beliefs about a group matter
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Beliefs about a group matter

Here’s a story about what can go wrong when we hold beliefs about a group and attribute these beliefs to the members of the group. The Battle of Little Bighorn, also called Custer's Last Stand, took place in Montana Territory on June 25-26, 1876, between the Lakota, Northern Cheyenne, and Arapaho tribes and the 7th Cavalry Regiment of the U.S. Army. The Battle of the Little Bighorn was a stunning victory for the Native Americans. The 7th Cavalry, casualties numbered 268 dead, including Custer, and 55 wounded. How Custer viewed the Indians opposing him led him astray.

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Not knowing we don’t know
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Not knowing we don’t know

To lack relevant knowledge without realizing it can have disastrous consequences. Consider, for example, the underestimation of the risk of a nuclear accident when constructing the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant power plant in Japan. The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster offers a stark example of what can go wrong when we rely on a small and biased sample of data.

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“The instant of decision is madness”
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

“The instant of decision is madness”

We are faced with “undecidability” and yet have to make a leap of faith and decide. Furthermore, we are overconfident in what we think we know and we can never know enough, We are fooling ourselves if we believe there are clear decision options and justifications ahead of the actual decision. We must act and then we will see what comes next and our next decision and action.

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22 principles I have learned from being an athlete
Success Lee Crumbaugh Success Lee Crumbaugh

22 principles I have learned from being an athlete

This post speaks to what I see as the strategies,habits and actions taken over time that lead to improvement and success. In essence, I believe that what it takes for long-term success in sport applies equally well to success in business and other walks of life. Over 57 years of athletics - running, triathlon, biking, swimming, spin classes, abs workouts, speed skating, golf, tennis and even some sailing - wisdom accrues. As a strategy consultant and business coach, I constantly find myself applying what I have learned from being an athlete to my work improving organizations and coaching decision makers. Here are 22 principles that have stuck with me as a result of decades of training, competing and coaching.

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Despite our growing ignorance, we must decide
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Despite our growing ignorance, we must decide

We are unable to fully access the information we need to make big decisions My mother encouraged me to read and learn. But she cautioned me, “The more you learn the less you will know.” That was her way of saying that learning opens whole domains about which we were previously ignorant and shows us how much more there is to learn. That thought leads to the necessary understanding that our decision making is dependent on knowledge we do not have and can never completely know. Because we are faced tidal wave of data and knowledge that we never can know and access, we as decision makers must make our big decisions without possessing all the existing knowledge that could make our decisions better. “Unknowability” is an unavoidable characteristic of real-world decision-making.

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Can “Big Data” deliver “the right decision”?
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

Can “Big Data” deliver “the right decision”?

One idea for maximizing the gain we get from decisions is to use machines to help us make them or even have machines make the big decisions for us. But can an algorithm be perfected to always yield “the right decision”? An algorithm is a process or set of rules used in calculations or problem-solving. “Artificial intelligence” (AI) algorithms which process “Big Data” use logic rules and mathematics to solve problems and produce answers. These algorithms engage in “machine learning” or “deep learning.” Instead of a programmer writing the commands to solve a problem, the program generates its own algorithm based on example or training data and a desired output.. But it is clear that we cannot reliably leave or ever expect to leave our big decisions to “Big Data” and artificial intelligence. We humans will continue to need to make the big decisions, with whatever outside aid we can muster and trust.

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The worst accident: “We’re going!”
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

The worst accident: “We’re going!”

On March 27, 1977, two Boeing 747 passenger jets, KLM Flight 4805 and Pan Am Flight 1736, collided on the runway at Los Rodeos Airport on the Spanish island of Tenerife. Of the 644 people aboard the two 747s, 583 were killed and only 61 survived. This was the worst accident in aviation history. The massive investigation of and subsequent reports on the Tenerife airport disaster offer deep insight into what happened and what went wrong. As a result, aviation authorities and airlines worldwide changed procedures. But they are insufficient to explain why the KLM 747 collided with the Pan Am 747. Explaining the “why” of the disaster leads us to our great concern, bad decisions and what to do to avoid them when making a good decision is imperative for a mission-critical outcome.

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Trump trap: Epistemic arrogance
Lee Crumbaugh Lee Crumbaugh

Trump trap: Epistemic arrogance

Donald Trump displays continuing ignorance in so many domains despite abundant evidence of the truth. A major decision-making trap that he exhibits is epistemic arrogance, in which we think we know more than we really do know. As our learning increases, we grow even more confident in our knowledge and tend to ignore our ignorance and what we still do not know. The prevalence of overconfidence appears to pose a serious obstacle to effective learning, problem solving and decision making.

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Trump trap: Action-oriented bias
Action-oriented bias Lee Crumbaugh Action-oriented bias Lee Crumbaugh

Trump trap: Action-oriented bias

Donald Trump appears to exhibit action-oriented bias, which inclines us to act without considering all the potential ramifications of our action. We tend to overestimate the odds of positive outcomes and our ability to produce desired outcomes. We underestimate the odds of negative outcomes and take too much credit for past successes. This bias arises when we feel pressured to act. This bias leads to non-rational decisions and actions.

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Why not plan to be great, like Elon Musk?
Strategy Lee Crumbaugh Strategy Lee Crumbaugh

Why not plan to be great, like Elon Musk?

Elon Musk and SpaceX, as well as his other ventures including Tesla, stick out as spectacular examples of dreaming big and then making a challenging but potentially achievable plan and going for it. But just how prevalent are leaders and organizations who formulate a big vision of future success and then formulate strategies and execute a solid plan to achieve the vision? Are Musk, SpaceX and Tesla really outliers? Even accounting for a less audacious vision, to what extent do leaders and organizations use the vision-strategies-plan-execution paradigm that seems to be carrying SpaceX and Tesla to such monumental achievements?

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Thank you for our connection
Gratitude Lee Crumbaugh Gratitude Lee Crumbaugh

Thank you for our connection

Research on the positive value of connections and impact of gratitude not only has personal and professional implications, it has organizational implications. Think about it: When we bring loosely connected stakeholders and even outsiders into the planning process for voices and thoughts beyond our own, we are enabling the group to provide new information and access to their networks. Likewise, making sure those involved in the planning know they have our sincere gratitude for their involvement and contributions seeds improved cooperation, decreased conflict and potent performance gains, that is, greater commitment to and involvement in implementing the plan.

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Case 12: Not missing the opportunity to lose billions
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 12: Not missing the opportunity to lose billions

Bernie Madoff's investors believed that his fund was rock-solid. He promised consistent annual returns of 10% to 12% and seemingly delivered on this promise for years. HIs Ponzi scheme has cost more than 40,000 investors who believed in him $6 billion in principal, even after recovery of $11.5 billion in investor's funds. Ponzi schemes like Madoff's succeed for longer or shorter periods because they play on greed. "Wanting in" and our desire to "get the payoff" can lead us to suspend disbelief and place trust where, indeed, it is misplaced. 

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Case 11: Getting bitten by not seeing it
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 11: Getting bitten by not seeing it

Isthmian Canal Commission Chief Engineer John Walker believed when he took over the U.S. project to build the Panama Canal in 1904 that the theory that mosquitoes transmitted deadly Yellow Fever was "balderdash" and eliminating the mosquitoes was a waste of time, money, and manpower. Walker's belief rejected 50 years of evidence from medical research that the Aedes aegypti mosquito spread Yellow Fever. His charge to "get the canal built" encouraged his narrow "get 'er done" focus and amplified his desire to wave away all but the most apparent obstacles to success. What's important is often subtle and murky. When we are led to not look for what's less apparent, we can be led seriously astray.

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Case 10: When what worked didn’t work
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 10: When what worked didn’t work

Yahoo CEO and former Google executive Marissa Mayer believed that she could turn around Yahoo when many others before her could not. Whether turning around Yahoo was possible cannot be known. But what does seem evident is that mental traps made the task even more difficult for Mayer. Her story shows us just how extraordinarily difficult it is for us to "unlearn" what has made us successful when new circumstances demand a different approach.

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Case 9: The climbers who perished by succeeding
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 9: The climbers who perished by succeeding

Mountain climbing guide Rob Hall believed that his expedition plan would get Mount Everest climbers in his charge onto and down from the summit. Yet, many climbers found themselves descending in darkness, well past midnight, as a ferocious blizzard enveloped the mountain. Five people died in this highly publicized 1996 disaster and many others barely escaped with their lives. Hall's party encountered the worst of outcomes because options were not recognized and the judgment of others besides Hall went unheard.

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Case 8: No accounting for incompetence
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 8: No accounting for incompetence

PricewaterhouseCoopers' partner and accountant Brian Cullinan believed that he and his associate were well prepared to properly dole out the envelopes with winners' names to presenters at the 2017 Oscars ceremony. Cullinan made the biggest Oscar award mistake ever by handing presenter Warren Beatty the wrong envelope. Beatty's on-stage partner, Faye Dunaway, announced “La La Land” was the winner when “Moonlight” was actually the best picture winner. The accounting firm partner was likely entrapped by many mental errors and biases. Working for a big-name firm and having a big title does not protect one from biases and traps. Indeed, it can lead to overlooking evidence and both rash action and stultifying inaction.

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Case 7: Blind or incompetent? Perhaps both…
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 7: Blind or incompetent? Perhaps both…

Lehman Brothers CEO Richard Fuld believed that the investment bank was adequately capitalized when it increased its leverage from 12-1 to 40-to-1, became a major player in securitizing subprime mortgages, relied on risky credit default swaps for protection and engaged in accounting maneuvers that disguised how much debt the firm had taken on. Also, he believed that the U.S. government would bail out the firm when the policies and actions he had enabled put the firm on the brink of failure in 2008. Contrary to Fuld's belief, Lehman Brothers was woefully undercapitalized as the financial crisis arose. The federal government walked away from an implicit "too big to fail" tag that Fuld and others thought would be applied to the firm. Lehman Brothers failed and Fuld was disgraced. Three big mental traps jump out of Fuld's folly.

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Case 6: Seeing what he wanted to see
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 6: Seeing what he wanted to see

Galileo stubbornly believed that Saturn was three planets in close orbit. This belief, which the Italian astronomer clung to until he died, belied what otherwise was his use of the scientific method: Other astronomers with stronger telescopes reported that what he saw as multiple planets was instead one planet with previously unknown rings around it.. Multiple mental traps and errors may have clouded Galileo's vision.

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Case 5: Getting burned by past successes
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 5: Getting burned by past successes

Samsung's leaders believed that the smartphone giant had a winner when it introduced its flagship Galaxy Note 7 smartphone with a new longer life lithium-ion battery.  After weeks of reports of phones bursting into fire, Samsung issued two separate recalls and ultimately had to permanently withdraw the phone from the market. Here are the mental traps and errors that likely misled Samsung's leaders.

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Case 4: I’m the boss, so I am right!
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Case 4: I’m the boss, so I am right!

Uber Technologies CEO Travis Kalanick believed that through confrontation he could make the firm supreme and dictate the rules for ridesharing and driverless cars. His approach led to a boycott and great reputational damage for the company and for him personally. Kalanick seems to be a "poster child" illustrating the ill effects of biases and traps.

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