Strategic Thinking & Strategic Action

Fostering strategic thinking and strategic action by organizational leaders since 2007.

AI revisited: Will it ever make perfect decisions?
Decision making Lee Crumbaugh Decision making Lee Crumbaugh

AI revisited: Will it ever make perfect decisions?

In our book, BIG DECISIONS, published in 2022, we took on the topic of whether artificial intelligence would soon (or ever) become the answer when we are looking for the right decision.

The idea is that we can maximize our gain from decisions is by using machines to help us make them or even have machines make them for us. But the question then and even more so now with the sudden emergence of OpenAI’s Chat GPT, Meta’s Llama 2, Anthropic’s Claude 2, Google’s Bard, and other groundbreaking AI large language models (LLMs), is can an algorithm be perfected to always yield "the right decision"?

Read More
Sometimes you get what you need
Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh

Sometimes you get what you need

Rolling Stones drummer Charlie Watts (middle left in the 1965 photo of the band) died today. He was a great drummer. He was unassuming and did not care much for the flamboyant lifestyles of his peers in the band. Watts quietly focused on his craft for more than 50 years.

But, you ask, what does that have to do with strategy? Let me digress and you soon will see that it has all to do with strategy.

Read More
Let’s not be complacent about our ignorance!
Coaching Lee Crumbaugh Coaching Lee Crumbaugh

Let’s not be complacent about our ignorance!

My mother encouraged me to read and learn. But she cautioned me, “The more you learn the less you will know.” That was her way of saying that learning opens whole domains about which we were previously ignorant and shows us how much more there is to learn.

Read More
Why settle? Go for the gold!
Coaching Lee Crumbaugh Coaching Lee Crumbaugh

Why settle? Go for the gold!

A business coach who “has been there” and has the right skill sets for coaching, planning, decision making and implementation, can help you develop and execute a winning plan, guide your decision making and actions along the way, motivate you, and hold you accountable.

Why go it alone when you can have a coach who can help you go for the gold?

Read More
Do you measure up?
Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh

Do you measure up?

We have a problem. We are not wired well for the sustained, organized, separate effort needed to change and grow, to implement our plans, be they strategic or annual.

What I have uncovered on my now six-year deep dive into why we make big decisions poorly and what to do about that huge issue starkly highlights what derails our best intentions in implementing our plans.

Read More
Changing our thinking to feel better. Yes, we do that!
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Changing our thinking to feel better. Yes, we do that!

In the 1980s, I had encounters with two bank CEOs whom power and money biased to make very bad decisions that hurt themselves, their employees, customers and the U.S. economy. Both later tangled with the law for their misdeeds.

With that background, you will understand why I am astonished about a much more recent and much larger case of banking misconduct, for which I believe no one has yet to serve time in custody. This case amplifies the decision-making errors I saw in the lead-up to the savings and loan crisis.

In February 2020, Wells Fargo, the nation’s fourth largest commercial bank, stunningly admitted that it had assessed customers millions of dollars in fees as employees falsified records, forged signatures and misused customers’ personal information to open fake accounts to meet unrealistic sales goals. The bank said its leaders knew of the misbehavior, including “violations of federal criminal law,” as early as 2002 but did not stop it until 2016.

Read More
Forget business as usual
Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh Strategic planning Lee Crumbaugh

Forget business as usual

With the realization that the storm we thought we are weathering is turning out to be a lasting, hard change in the business climate, a shorter “fix” is likely only to be the start of what the typical business will need to do to be really successful going forward.

I am suggesting that we go beyond stop-gap and short-term measures. I am suggesting that each of us take our business back to fundamentals, rethink it in light of where we are and likely are headed. I am suggesting that we address the new challenges and opportunities brought on by change and then build that reimagined business for greater success.

Here’s a six-step process for resetting your business in a time of great change.

Read More
The Black Swan and us
Risk Lee Crumbaugh Risk Lee Crumbaugh

The Black Swan and us

We are victims of change. Huge change. Change that some tried to predict but that most of the rest of us did not see coming. Change that fits at least some of the characteristics of a Black Swan.

Read More
Avoid “the big fail”! Join a group.
Lee Crumbaugh Lee Crumbaugh

Avoid “the big fail”! Join a group.

I offer group business coaching. The results that my group coaching clients are getting amaze me. Bang for the buck and for the time required, group coaching is a winner for my clients, as well as for me. Here's the case for joining a monthly coaching and accountability group such as what I am now offering. It will help you avoid "the big fail" (it is described in the article), and will support you in achieving your goals. You get brainstorming, education, peer accountability and support in a group setting. This support is especially important in helping you succeed in this radically changed business environment and in sharpening your business and personal skills.

Read More
We are biased by the bell curve
Bell curve bias Lee Crumbaugh Bell curve bias Lee Crumbaugh

We are biased by the bell curve

We are biased by the bell curve in many domains of our decision making. For example: In investing, we discount the possibility of rare and unpredictable large deviations in stock prices. In marketing, we want to believe that “there is a meaningful ‘average consumer’ that can be used to scale products and operations around.” We are asked to rate Uber drivers, Airbnbs and Yelp establishments on a 1-5 bell curve scale, and yet the ratings cluster above 4. Any person or place rated lower, in essence, fails.  The implication of our tendency to assume that things are distributed normally is that we have a huge flaw in how we interpret what we see and how we make decisions. Better to step back and see what things look like without imposing the bell curve from the get-go.

Read More
Remember, history is written by the survivors
Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh Decision biases cases Lee Crumbaugh

Remember, history is written by the survivors

We are urged to learn from history. But what if the history is biased? Here’s a case showing how slanted history can lead to bad decisions. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, U.S. advisors were mislead by the fallacy of silent evidence, that is, not seeing the full story when looking at history, just seeing the rosier parts of the process reported by the “winners.” U.S. policy was tragically misguided because of survivorship bias, that is, concentrating on and giving undue credit to the people, things or interpretations that "survived" the process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their invisibility.

Read More